Peter Turchin

Russian-American complexity scientist · United States · On the map · Scientists · Born 1957 · age 69

Peter Valentinovich Turchin is a Russian-American scientist who specializes in an area of study he and his colleagues developed called cliodynamics - mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies.

Peter Turchin is read about 525 times a day, in 13 languages.

A typical day, 30 days to 10 November 2026

The middle day of the days counted, so one week of news cannot move it. The line under it is the last 112 days, one point a day.

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A life in dates

2023“I began my career... as an ecologist... studying the population dynamics of beetles, butterflies, mice, and deer.”In their wordsPrefaceRead the whole statement

“Complex human societies at base and at some abstract level, are organized according to the same general principles.”In their wordsPrefaceRead the whole statement

“It became clear... through quantitative historical analysis that [throughout time] complex societies everywhere are affected by recurrent and, to a...”In their wordsPrefaceRead the whole statement

“Societies have arrived at this crossroads before, and though...”In their wordsPrefaceRead the whole statement

“... uses the methods of data science, treating the historical record... as Big Data. It employs mathematical models to trace the intricate web of interactions...”In their words: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter TurchinRead the whole statement

“There are some reasons to doubt that growing inequality might be a direct mechanism... of instability, because humans are very bad at perceiving inequality.”In their words1:34Read the whole statement

2021Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of ScienceAward1957Born22 May 1957

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Father Valentin Turchin

Peter Turchin

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Photos 2

Clio - detail from The Allegory of Painting by Johannes Vermeer

In their own words 4

Peter Turchin

4 statements, newest first

There are important recurring patterns... throughout... human history over the past ten thousand years.
2023 · Preface, Own words
My colleagues and I... focused on cycles of political integration and disintegration, particularly on state formation and state collapse.
2023 · Preface, Own words
When a state... has stagnating or declining ...
2023 · Preface, Own words