Robert J. Shiller
American economist · United States · On the map · Academics · Born 1946 · age 80
Robert James Shiller is an American economist, academic, and author. As of 2022, he served as a Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and is a fellow at the Yale School of Management's International Center for Finance.
Robert J. Shiller is read about 181 times a day, in 52 languages.
A typical day, 30 days to 6 November 2026
The middle day of the days counted, so one week of news cannot move it. The line under it is the last 104 days, one point a day.
Something wrong?A life in dates
Media & music
Photos 4
Nobel Memorial Prize Laureate Robert J. Shiller during press conference in Stockholm, December 2013![Robert Shiller's plot of the S&P Composite Real Price Index, Earnings, Dividends, and Interest Rates, from Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed.[19] In the preface to this edition, Shiller warns that "[t]he stock market has not come down to historical levels: the price-earnings ratio as I define it in this book is still, at this writing [2005], in the mid‑20s, far higher than the historical average. ... People still place too much confidence in the markets and have too strong a belief that paying attention to the gyrations in their investments will someday make them rich, and so they do not make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes."](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6f/IE_Real_SandP_Prices%2C_Earnings%2C_and_Dividends_1871-2006.png/500px-IE_Real_SandP_Prices%2C_Earnings%2C_and_Dividends_1871-2006.png)
Robert Shiller's plot of the S&P Composite Real Price Index, Earnings, Dividends, and Interest Rates, from Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed.[19] In the preface to this edition, Shiller warns that "[t]he stock market has not come down to historical levels: the price-earnings ratio as I define it in this book is still, at this writing [2005], in the mid‑20s, far higher than the historical average. ... People still place too much confidence in the markets and have too strong a belief that paying attention to the gyrations in their investments will someday make them rich, and so they do not make conservative preparations for possible bad outcomes."![Price-earnings ratios as a predictor of twenty-year returns based on the plot by Robert Shiller (Figure 10.1,[19][20]). The horizontal axis shows the Cyclically adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) ratio of the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as computed in Irrational Exuberance (inflation adjusted price divided by the prior ten-year mean of inflation-adjusted earnings). The vertical axis shows the geometric average real annual return on investing in the S&P Composite Stock Price Index, reinvesting dividends, and selling twenty years later. Data from different twenty-year periods is color-coded as shown in the key. See also ten-year returns. Shiller states that this plot "confirms that long-term investors - investors who commit their money to an investment for ten full years - did do well when prices were low relative to earnings at the beginning of the ten years. Long-term investors would be well advised, individually, to lower their exposure to the stock market when it is high, as it has been recently, and get into the market when it is low."[19]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/77/Price-Earnings_Ratios_as_a_Predictor_of_Twenty-Year_Returns_%28Shiller_Data%29.png/500px-Price-Earnings_Ratios_as_a_Predictor_of_Twenty-Year_Returns_%28Shiller_Data%29.png)
Price-earnings ratios as a predictor of twenty-year returns based on the plot by Robert Shiller (Figure 10.1,[19][20]). The horizontal axis shows the Cyclically adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) ratio of the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as computed in Irrational Exuberance (inflation adjusted price divided by the prior ten-year mean of inflation-adjusted earnings). The vertical axis shows the geometric average real annual return on investing in the S&P Composite Stock Price Index, reinvesting dividends, and selling twenty years later. Data from different twenty-year periods is color-coded as shown in the key. See also ten-year returns. Shiller states that this plot "confirms that long-term investors - investors who commit their money to an investment for ten full years - did do well when prices were low relative to earnings at the beginning of the ten years. Long-term investors would be well advised, individually, to lower their exposure to the stock market when it is high, as it has been recently, and get into the market when it is low."[19]In their own words 1
, This [covariance] is something that is not in the habit of thinking of most amateur investors.
Awards
About this person
Shiller has been a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) since 1980, was vice president of the American Economic Association in 2005, its president for 2016, and president of the Eastern Economic Association for 2006-2007. He is also the co‑founder and chief economist of the investment management firm MacroMarkets LLC.
Where to find them
The same award as Robert
Eugene FamaBoth received Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics
Bertil OhlinBoth received Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel
David CardBoth received Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel
Raghuram RajanBoth received Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial EconomicsMichael Dean WoodfordBoth received Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics
Michael SpenceBoth received Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel